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Israel’s potential strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities – analysis

May 15, 2009
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imagesI missed this when it was first published a few months ago, but Anthony Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan from the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) have written the ‘soup-to-nuts’ unclassified analysis on Israel’s ability to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.

This report includes most everything that a military planner would want to know – Israeli and Iran air capabilities and detailed orders-of-battle, potential air routes, ballistic missile delivery flightplans, Iranian countermeasures, political fallout, you name it.

The authors in “scenario 1” – a conventional airstrike on the various Iranian facilities – however grimly conclude:

…that a military strike by the Israeli Airforce against Iranian Nuclear Facilities is possible, however, it would be complex and high risk in the operational level and would lack any assurances of a high mission success rate.

The report is long, complex and involved (lots of eye-catching charts though!), but it is absolutely worth reading if Israeli policymakers indeed decide to strike Iranian targets in the next year or so.

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